Following the recent shocking move by President Biya’s long-time allies; Issa Tchiroma and Bello Bouba Maigari, to declare their candidacies for the forthcoming 2025 presidential election, there have been talks on the fresh strategies that the ruling CPDM party may be forced to adopt in a bid to guarantee its much-desired success in the current race to the Unity Palace. Beyond the CPDM circle, the moves have sparked a more intense debate focused on what many predict could be animated by a season of widespread realignment that could culminate in the molding of a powerful opposition coalition force to challenge the party in power.
Last week’s dramatic twists in the ongoing 2025 presidential race orchestrated by the unexpected declaration of candidacies by two of President Paul Biya’s biggest allies; Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Bello Bouba Maigari, have sparked widespread debates and speculations. The declarations by the two political heavyweights from the vote-rich northern part of the country have left many speculating on possibilities of a major groundbreaking plan changes in the making as the road to the October 2025 polls narrows down.
Within the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement, CPDM party of President Paul Biya, observers suggest that the change in dynamics may force the firebrand institution to adopt fresh plans and strategies in a bid to mastermind and guarantee its much-desired success in the current race to the Unity Palace. Outside the CPDM and its ever-grinding machinery, there are speculations focused on what many predict could be animated by a season of mega realignments that may culminate in the molding of a powerful opposition coalition force to challenge the party in power.
Here, eyes are focused on the likes of Bello Bouba and Issa Tchiroma of the National Union for Democracy and Progress, UNDP and Cameroon National Salvation Front, FSNC respectively, Maurice Kamto of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement, MRC, the Social Democratic Front’s Joshua Osih, Cabral Libii of the Cameroonian Party for National Reconciliation, PCRN and a host of others. While the MRC’s Maurice Kamto, Josuah Osih, Cabral Libii and Serge Espoir Matomba of the United People for Social Renovation have all long made their intentions of running for the Unity Palace top office known, Bello Bouba and Issa Tchiroma who have been strong allies to President Biya in the last over three decades, only officially joined the race last week.
Issa Tchiroma resigned from his position as Minister of Employment and Vocational Training last Tuesday and declared his candidacy for the 2025 presidential election a day later. Following his unexpected exit, there are reports that the vacancy that he created have since been filled on a temporal basis by the Minister of Youth Affairs and Civic Education, Mounouna Foutsou who is expected to spend the next weeks or months joggling between two ministries. But the political storm launched by Issa Tchiroma’s exit is still to calm down. Bello Bouba who has been a well-known and respected ally of the CPDM in the last over three decades, followed suit to announce his candidacy for the forthcoming polls last Saturday June 26.
The announcement from Bello Bouba who last contested as a candidate in a presidential election in Cameroon in 1992, laid down the foundations for what many believe could be an interesting period of drama and major political theatrics as the October 2025 political showdown gets nearer with increased intensity.
Speculations over CPDM’s next move
Per sources, there are chances that the CPDM party could adopt a more ruthless approach as it seeks to win back the votes that the party stands at the risk of losing as a result of the breakdown in the alliance it had with the UNDP and FSNC. This is despite the fact that Biya’s foot soldiers have continued preaching towards a different direction. CPDM’s communication secretary, Prof Jacques Fame Ndongo told national bilingual daily newspaper, Cameroon Tribune on Monday this week that Biya is unbothered by the increasing change in dynamics.
He insisted that Biya and the CPDM have a plan in place that will be effective enough to guarantee its victory during the presidential showdown. “…these departures are part of the normal political game. There’s nothing new under the sun. Vigilance, because nothing can be taken for granted in politics. 360-degree reversals are always possible. A great politician is one who knows how to master contradictions, antagonisms, betrayals, even uncertainties and upheavals,” Prof Fame Ndongo who has served as the Minister of Higher Education in the Biya regime in the last two decades, stated.
He said the structure is keen and confident that it will “win the loyalty of the acquired electorate, persuade the floating electorate, convince the hostile electorate and democratically thwart the irreducible electorate.” “President Paul Biya has a largely positive record, a futuristic political project and a vision that is attractive to young people, women, the elderly and all socio-professional strategy,” he added.
Major opposition coalition in the making
While the CPDM will be imploring new strategies, a section of observers say that the present dispensation caused by the Bello Bouba and Issa Tchiroma defections could push the floodgates open for the major opposition figures to join forces in assembling a united and solid opposition coalition force. Per pundits, such a force may easily outsmart the CPDM party if the coalition is able to assemble all the strong opposition figures from the four geographical zones of the country to disrupt the ruling party’s mechanism which is built mainly around the structure’s status as a body that has strong grassroots basis from all corners of the national territory.
Bello Bouba and Issa Tchiroma are believed to have the force to disrupt the smooth functioning of the ruling party’s machinery in the three northern regions of Adamawa, North and Far North. Bello Bouba placed third in the 1992 presidential election behind Biya and the late Ni John Fru Ndi of the SDF after bagging more than 19% of the votes. Although he has not featured in a presidential election since the 1992 polls 33 years ago, the former Prime Minister who is now Minister of State and Minister of Tourism and Leisure is still considered a strong force that can help get the votes especially in the northern part of the country.
His UNDP party currently stands as the main opposition party in the country based on the number of representatives in parliament. The party currently has seven members of parliament in the National Assembly following its strong showing in the 2020 Legislative Election. Issa Tchiroma is expected to bring in similar weights for the opposition coalition like Bello Bouba if indeed the opposition figures join forces. Issa Tchiroma has never featured in a presidential election in the country. But he is believed to have a force that is strong enough to bring in the votes especially in the northern part of the country. Many cite the performance of his FSNC party in other recent national and regional elections as a major signal for that assertion.
The FSNC ranked fifth in the 2023 Senatorial Election. Before then, the party had come through with a more impressive showing at the 2020 Legislative Election. The structure placed sixth in the legislative polls five years ago after winning three parliamentary seats, to make a grandiose entry to parliament where it previously had no representation.
The Kamto-Osih force
Kamto placed second in the 2018 Presidential Election but remains without a representation in parliament after it boycotted the 2020 Municipal and Legislative Elections. Despite the limitations, the MRC leader is still regarded as a figure that could play a crucial role in lifting a possible opposition coalition to higher heights. Kamto is believed to have strong base and backing in the Littoral Region, his native West Region and several other parts of the country.
He is also very popular in the diaspora as notably highlighted during his recent rally in Paris in France almost a month ago. Osih of the SDF had a nightmarish run in the 2018 Presidential Election. He ranked fourth after registering just over 4% of the total votes in what went down as the SDF’s poorest show in a presidential election in Cameroon since its creation over three decades ago.
But as a leader who boosts of having five members of parliament in the National Assembly and a representative in the Senate plus a strong base in the English-speaking part of the country and several other areas, Osih is regarded as a man who masters the game and can do well to drive the success of a possible opposition coalition.
Cabral Libii, Espoir Matomba
Espoir Matomba and Cabral Libii are considered the star boys in the political terrain in Cameroon at the moment. The two are believed to have what it takes to bring in the votes from the younger demographics of the country like they did during the 2018 election where they placed third and seventh respectively. Eyes will be particularly placed on Cabral Libii of the PCRN in case he chooses to join forces for an opposition coalition. Cabral Libii currently has five members of parliament in the National Assembly, the join second highest number of representatives by an opposition party in the current legislature of the National Assembly.
